Make assumptions that give us a better chance of investment success

I acknowledge that financial forecasting is never easy. However, I would argue that if you have a basic grasp of economic history and a real understanding of what is happening in the world today, you can be reasonably convinced that certain things have a higher probability of happening in the future than others. You can then invest your money accordingly. As an example: if it is a statement of fact that government, corporate and private debt levels are the highest they have ever been, this information can be used to make assumptions that give us a better chance of investment success. Economics is not rocket science, despite what some economists would like you to think, and history provides us with plenty of examples of change similar to what we are experiencing now.

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